Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1345 at 07:32 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1345 SAN 07:32 → DAL 12:40 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3639 SAN 18:14 → DAL 23:14 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1345 Southwest	SAN 07:32	DAL 12:40	10%	2%	1.0%	no record
WN 3937 Southwest	SAN 11:22	DAL 16:30	21%	4%	1.1%	no record
WN 3638 Southwest	SAN 15:12	DAL 20:20	22%	6%	1.4%	no record
WN 3639 Southwest	SAN 18:14	DAL 23:14	28%	9%	4.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON