Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via Philadelphia, leaving 06:19, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Washington on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 67% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 14 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 12:42	DCA 21:00	23%	5%	0.9%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121	2h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:58DL 2961	9h 10m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	2h 33m Minneapolis	MSP 14:37 → DCA 18:09DL 2963	8h 49m	99%	89%
American Details →	SAN 06:19 → PHL 14:31AA 2093	1h 15m Philadelphia	PHL 15:46 → DCA 17:02AA 5363 · flown by PSA	7h 43m	100%	82%
United Details →	SAN 07:57 → IAH 13:26UA 2760	3h 16m Houston	IAH 16:42 → DCA 20:57UA 235	10h 00m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117	1h 09m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	7h 20m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537	10h 16m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492	2h 13m Detroit	DTW 21:23 → DCA 23:03DL 2073	8h 26m	97%	80%
Delta Details →	SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179	3h 22m Atlanta	ATL 18:55 → DCA 20:47DL 325	9h 47m	97%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	SAN 11:51 → JFK 20:30B6 190	1h 00m New York	JFK 21:30 → DCA 22:59B6 955	8h 08m	67%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON