Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1737 at 08:27 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 1737 SAN 08:27 → DEN 11:48 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4440 SAN 14:55 → DEN 18:11 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1737 Southwest	SAN 08:27	DEN 11:48	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3641 Southwest	SAN 06:57	DEN 10:18	9%	2%	0.6%	no record
UA 2476 United Flight history →	SAN 08:45	DEN 12:17	12%	3%	0.6%	89%
F9 2818 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 06:25	DEN 10:03	15%	4%	1.1%	86%
F9 4990 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 17:09	DEN 20:36	16%	7%	1.3%	81%
UA 2829 United	SAN 07:07	DEN 10:29	16%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 2793 United	SAN 10:53	DEN 14:15	16%	5%	0.6%	no record
AS 1342 Alaska	SAN 07:58	DEN 11:15	17%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1565 United Flight history →	SAN 12:33	DEN 16:06	17%	7%	0.6%	87%
UA 682 United Flight history →	SAN 16:07	DEN 19:39	17%	7%	0.6%	77%
WN 3013 Southwest	SAN 17:47	DEN 21:08	17%	5%	0.6%	no record
OO 3121 SkyWest	SAN 18:29	DEN 21:56	18%	6%	1.0%	no record
WN 1767 Southwest	SAN 12:12	DEN 15:43	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 2019 Southwest	SAN 13:42	DEN 17:03	22%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 635 Alaska	SAN 15:36	DEN 18:50	23%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 4440 Southwest	SAN 14:55	DEN 18:11	24%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON