Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2535 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2535 SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AA 3060 SAN 15:12 → DFW 20:30 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2535 American Flight history →	SAN 06:20	DFW 11:35	11%	4%	1.7%	85%
AA 373 American Flight history →	SAN 07:15	DFW 12:30	14%	5%	1.7%	89%
AA 1055 American Flight history →	SAN 08:00	DFW 13:10	16%	6%	1.6%	84%
AS 545 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 09:52	DFW 15:13	18%	6%	0.8%	86%
AA 2687 American Flight history →	SAN 09:50	DFW 15:10	20%	7%	1.7%	84%
F9 1426 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 09:01	DFW 14:12	26%	9%	1.5%	79%
AS 689 Alaska	SAN 17:48	DFW 22:40	27%	14%	2.5%	no record
AA 2034 American Flight history →	SAN 11:22	DFW 16:34	28%	10%	2.3%	76%
AA 1467 American Flight history →	SAN 12:20	DFW 17:40	28%	11%	2.3%	78%
AA 1770 American	SAN 13:57	DFW 19:14	29%	13%	3.0%	no record
AA 3060 American Flight history →	SAN 15:12	DFW 20:30	36%	21%	13.8%	77%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON