tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1780 at 10:07, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1780 Southwest SAN 10:07 ELP 13:06 15% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:11 → IAH 15:39UA 1980 1h 19m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 6h 51m 88% 73%
UnitedDetails → SAN 15:10 → IAH 20:31UA 618 1h 09m Houston IAH 21:40 → ELP 22:44UA 4010 · flown by Mesa 6h 34m 88% 72%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 3h 14m Denver DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11UA 333 7h 38m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:57 → IAH 13:26UA 2760 54m Houston IAH 14:20 → ELP 15:25UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 28m 80% 61%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 1h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:42 → ELP 13:34AA 2953 6h 14m 92% 61%
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:15 → DFW 12:30AA 373 2h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:42 → ELP 15:33AA 1681 7h 18m 95% 58%
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:22 → DFW 16:34AA 2034 1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:09 → ELP 19:00AA 555 6h 38m 84% 43%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:06 → ELP 16:58AA 2097 6h 08m 76% 42%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:22 → PHX 17:52AA 1951 59m Phoenix PHX 18:51 → ELP 21:17AA 6369 · flown by SkyWest 3h 55m 72% 53%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON