tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1841 at 11:22, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1841 Southwest SAN 11:22 EUG 14:09 13% 5% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 15:02 → EUG 16:02DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 16:11 → SEA 19:05DL 2572 2h 45m Seattle SEA 21:50 → EUG 23:08DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest 6h 57m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309 3h 48m San Francisco SFO 16:35 → EUG 18:17UA 502 7h 16m 100% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 18:25 → SEA 21:13AS 683 1h 36m Seattle SEA 22:49 → EUG 23:59AS 2047 · flown by Horizon 5h 34m 85% 75%
DeltaDetails → SAN 07:03 → SEA 10:05DL 2530 1h 25m Seattle SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest 5h 55m 90% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 17:58 → PDX 20:31AS 1392 1h 09m Portland PDX 21:40 → EUG 22:28AS 2088 · flown by Horizon 4h 30m 87% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 17:58 → PDX 20:31AS 1392 53m Portland PDX 21:24 → EUG 22:23AS 3043 · flown by SkyWest 4h 25m 72% 63%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 47m Portland PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:18AS 2078 · flown by Horizon 4h 14m 63% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON