Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 427 at 22:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 427 SAN 22:30 → EWR 06:53 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest UA 327 SAN 13:26 → EWR 22:01 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 427 United Flight history →	SAN 22:30	EWR 06:53	12%	3%	1.4%	84%
UA 1827 United Flight history →	SAN 22:40	EWR 06:47	13%	3%	1.3%	88%
AS 297 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:55	EWR 16:36	25%	6%	1.7%	81%
UA 327 United Flight history →	SAN 13:26	EWR 22:01	30%	12%	0.9%	79%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 13:10 → EWR 16:53DL 2866	7h 33m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296	1h 22m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:40 → EWR 23:54DL 2038	7h 39m	91%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON