Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 3021 SAN 17:19 → FAT 18:45 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 3491 SAN 10:00 → FAT 11:26 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 3021 SkyWest	SAN 17:19	FAT 18:45	15%	9%	1.4%	no record
WN 3644 Southwest	SAN 18:02	FAT 19:21	19%	6%	0.9%	no record
OO 3051 SkyWest	SAN 18:57	FAT 20:23	19%	10%	1.6%	no record
OO 847 SkyWest	SAN 22:13	FAT 23:39	20%	7%	1.4%	no record
AS 3491 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 10:00	FAT 11:26	22%	9%	1.2%	83%
AS 2208 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 08:44	FAT 10:05	22%	4%	1.9%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON