tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4224 Southwest SAN 19:01 HNL 21:58 20% 6% 0.7% no record
AS 815 Alaska Flight history → SAN 09:07 HNL 12:18 40% 7% 1.8% 59%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 1h 16m San Francisco SFO 09:20 → HNL 11:43UA 1175 8h 23m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 3h 41m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 11h 04m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117 2h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 04m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 1h 44m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 8h 49m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 3h 43m Denver DEN 16:00 → HNL 19:13UA 1805 13h 28m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 55m Los Angeles LAX 08:30 → HNL 11:18DL 480 8h 03m 91% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 10:59 → OGG 13:42AS 232 2h 45m Kahului OGG 16:27 → HNL 17:17AS 1165 9h 18m 99% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 3h 49m Portland PDX 17:32 → HNL 20:24AS 841 12h 20m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 10:59 → OGG 13:42AS 232 50m Kahului OGG 14:32 → HNL 15:22AS 1135 7h 23m 65% 49%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 15:17 → SEA 17:57AS 685 1h 06m Seattle SEA 19:03 → HNL 21:49AS 451 9h 32m 67% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON