Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 16–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 3147 Southwest	SAN 08:52	HOU 14:02	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4505 Southwest	SAN 11:42	HOU 16:52	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	1h 23m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	8h 07m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 20:45 → HOU 21:51DL 2051	9h 15m	99%	75%
American Details →	SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687	3h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	8h 08m	99%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467	57m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:37 → HOU 19:58AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	5h 38m	71%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON