Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 15–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 1071 SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AS 506 SAN 10:46 → IAD 18:57 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1071 United Flight history →	SAN 08:00	IAD 16:08	15%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 444 United Flight history →	SAN 12:57	IAD 21:05	19%	6%	0.6%	87%
AS 506 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 10:46	IAD 18:57	21%	4%	0.7%	86%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476	1h 36m Denver	DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347	7h 37m	94%	79%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754	59m Detroit	DTW 14:47 → IAD 16:22DL 1787	7h 07m	90%	76%
United Details →	SAN 10:11 → IAH 15:39UA 1980	56m Houston	IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388	7h 35m	83%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON