tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4225 at 10:17, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4225 Southwest SAN 10:17 IND 17:19 18% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Indianapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Indianapolis is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:19 → PHL 14:31AA 2093 3h 48m Philadelphia PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45AA 4637 · flown by Republic 11h 26m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 1h 48m San Francisco SFO 09:52 → IND 17:09UA 2274 7h 49m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 16:50 → IND 18:27DL 2979 9h 12m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 20m Minneapolis MSP 20:00 → IND 22:37DL 674 7h 49m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 51m Minneapolis MSP 12:55 → IND 15:33DL 2910 6h 13m 87% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 2h 53m Chicago ORD 19:45 → IND 22:05UA 3707 · flown by Republic 8h 30m 94% 78%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:21 → PHL 17:45AA 433 3h 53m Philadelphia PHL 21:38 → IND 23:47AA 682 11h 26m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 20:30 → IND 22:06DL 1482 8h 30m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 07:15 → DFW 12:30AA 373 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:18 → IND 16:38AA 1450 6h 23m 72% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON