Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AS 24 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–33%.

Safest bet that day AS 24 SAN 07:00 → JFK 15:49 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 190 SAN 11:51 → JFK 20:30 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AS 24 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:00	JFK 15:49	17%	3%	1.1%	89%
DL 367 Delta Flight history →	SAN 07:29	JFK 16:19	18%	5%	1.0%	87%
B6 1190 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 20:30	JFK 05:04	18%	6%	2.4%	88%
DL 683 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:00	JFK 21:54	26%	8%	0.8%	76%
B6 190 JetBlue Flight history →	SAN 11:51	JFK 20:30	33%	9%	1.4%	81%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest	1h 24m Los Angeles	LAX 08:59 → JFK 17:02DL 934	7h 47m	98%	74%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	50m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 40m	86%	72%
American Details →	SAN 06:15 → ORD 12:47AA 518	50m Chicago	ORD 13:37 → JFK 17:00AA 2485	7h 45m	86%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON