Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via SFO, leaving 13:39, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763	3h 28m San Francisco	SFO 18:47 → KOA 21:19UA 1723	10h 40m	97%	81%
Alaska Details →	SAN 10:59 → OGG 13:42AS 232	2h 12m Kahului	OGG 15:54 → KOA 16:28AS 1250	8h 29m	95%	73%
Alaska Details →	SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815	2h 56m Honolulu	HNL 15:14 → KOA 16:01AS 1138	9h 54m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	SAN 12:08 → SEA 14:53AS 1368	2h 56m Seattle	SEA 17:49 → KOA 20:44AS 238	11h 36m	91%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117	58m San Francisco	SFO 18:47 → KOA 21:19UA 1723	8h 10m	70%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON