Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3022 at 06:52 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day WN 3022 SAN 06:52 → LAS 08:34 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1466 SAN 18:19 → LAS 19:55 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3022 Southwest	SAN 06:52	LAS 08:34	4%	1%	1.2%	no record
WN 1049 Southwest	SAN 07:47	LAS 09:24	8%	2%	1.1%	no record
WN 804 Southwest	SAN 10:17	LAS 11:54	15%	3%	1.0%	no record
WN 368 Southwest	SAN 22:49	LAS 00:10	22%	7%	1.3%	no record
OO 3323 SkyWest	SAN 21:54	LAS 23:21	22%	9%	2.0%	no record
WN 3652 Southwest	SAN 12:24	LAS 13:44	24%	5%	1.0%	no record
WN 1336 Southwest	SAN 14:02	LAS 15:39	26%	7%	1.2%	no record
F9 1326 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 09:55	LAS 11:32	27%	9%	1.8%	57%
WN 3047 Southwest	SAN 15:17	LAS 16:54	28%	9%	1.3%	no record
WN 458 Southwest	SAN 17:17	LAS 18:54	30%	14%	2.1%	no record
OO 3932 SkyWest	SAN 15:44	LAS 17:11	32%	13%	1.2%	no record
F9 1466 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 18:19	LAS 19:55	37%	21%	4.2%	67%
AS 2281 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 09:05	LAS 10:31	15%	0%	7.7%	85%
AS 2018 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 17:15	LAS 18:41	41%	20%	4.5%	59%
AS 2092 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:13	LAS 17:39	43%	13%	1.5%	57%
AS 2274 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 20:15	LAS 21:43	65%	31%	5.9%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON