Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 3743 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 8–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 3743 SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2131 SAN 13:17 → LAX 14:00 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3743 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 06:15	LAX 07:35	6%	4%	0.7%	95%
UA 2667 United	SAN 06:18	LAX 07:17	8%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 4087 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 19:58	LAX 21:13	11%	6%	0.7%	89%
DL 3716 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 10:54	LAX 12:11	13%	6%	0.6%	91%
OO 3993 SkyWest	SAN 14:50	LAX 15:47	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2175 United	SAN 15:20	LAX 16:16	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
AA 2131 American	SAN 13:17	LAX 14:00	29%	9%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON