Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 251 at 13:52, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 251 Southwest	SAN 13:52	MCI 19:06	25%	6%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	3h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 15:20 → MCI 16:56DL 1774	8h 36m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882	5h 42m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121	2h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → MCI 21:59DL 1657	8h 11m	100%	82%
Alaska Details →	SAN 06:50 → PDX 09:29AS 399	2h 34m Portland	PDX 12:03 → MCI 17:22AS 225	8h 32m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest	1h 44m Los Angeles	LAX 13:55 → MCI 19:12DL 2243	6h 18m	96%	78%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	1h 30m Atlanta	ATL 15:19 → MCI 16:29DL 1660	8h 14m	99%	78%
United Details →	SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08UA 1071	1h 56m Dulles	IAD 18:04 → MCI 19:53UA 1165	9h 53m	96%	78%
United Details →	SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476	1h 23m Denver	DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586	5h 37m	92%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAN 13:36 → SEA 16:32DL 2533	58m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → MCI 23:00DL 2256	7h 24m	75%	53%
Delta Details →	SAN 14:18 → ATL 22:00DL 540	48m Atlanta	ATL 22:48 → MCI 23:58DL 2911	7h 40m	69%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON