tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 11:58, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching Orlando on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 47% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4236 Southwest SAN 07:02 MCO 14:51 12% 3% 2.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 3h 54m Los Angeles LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718 10h 13m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 05m Minneapolis MSP 19:45 → MCO 23:58DL 2309 9h 10m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:57 → IAH 13:26UA 2760 3h 43m Houston IAH 17:09 → MCO 20:48UA 1571 9h 51m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:58 → IAH 17:25UA 2237 2h 04m Houston IAH 19:29 → MCO 23:05UA 3883 8h 07m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:57 → IAD 21:05UA 444 1h 28m Dulles IAD 22:33 → MCO 01:01 +1UA 689 9h 04m 90% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 31m Denver DEN 13:48 → MCO 19:39UA 501 7h 54m 93% 74%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 16:00 → MCO 17:47DL 1742 8h 32m 99% 74%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:11 → IAH 15:39UA 1980 2h 47m Houston IAH 18:26 → MCO 21:58UA 2451 8h 47m 92% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 49m Atlanta ATL 19:00 → MCO 20:35DL 2881 6h 59m 68% 45%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 12:08 → SEA 14:54AS 1368 49m Seattle SEA 15:43 → MCO 23:59AS 420 8h 51m 47% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON