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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Medford on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → MFR 11:40DL 3806 · flown by SkyWest 5h 25m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 1h 41m Salt Lake City SLC 21:40 → MFR 22:32DL 3722 · flown by SkyWest 5h 31m 94% 84%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 11:04 → PDX 13:43AS 576 1h 16m Portland PDX 14:59 → MFR 16:15AS 3337 · flown by SkyWest 5h 11m 89% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAN 16:11 → SEA 19:05DL 2572 2h 30m Seattle SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest 7h 00m 94% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 12:08 → SEA 14:54AS 1368 2h 53m Seattle SEA 17:47 → MFR 19:13AS 2037 · flown by Horizon 7h 05m 91% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309 4h 00m San Francisco SFO 16:47 → MFR 18:13UA 1001 7h 12m 100% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 17:58 → PDX 20:31AS 1392 1h 33m Portland PDX 22:04 → MFR 23:06AS 2266 · flown by Horizon 5h 08m 92% 72%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 2h 33m San Francisco SFO 10:37 → MFR 12:04UA 2322 5h 44m 98% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON