tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 09:50, is the safest bet: 40% chance of reaching Miami on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1802 American SAN 22:18 MIA 06:11 20% 4% 1.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210 3h 01m Salt Lake City SLC 23:00 → MIA 05:40 +1DL 2040 9h 39m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 1h 02m Minneapolis MSP 18:42 → MIA 23:26DL 2187 8h 38m 88% 73%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 3h 46m Denver DEN 16:03 → MIA 22:05UA 445 10h 20m 98% 71%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 05m Los Angeles LAX 09:40 → MIA 18:07DL 811 8h 52m 99% 69%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:11 → IAH 15:39UA 1980 3h 22m Houston IAH 19:01 → MIA 22:40UA 1829 9h 29m 94% 67%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 3h 59m Atlanta ATL 17:48 → MIA 19:44DL 719 10h 29m 99% 65%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:21 → PHL 17:45AA 433 2h 08m Philadelphia PHL 19:53 → MIA 23:03AA 2132 10h 42m 90% 64%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:27 → PHL 14:49AA 2093 1h 36m Philadelphia PHL 16:25 → MIA 19:27AA 3306 10h 00m 100% 64%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 10:11 → ORD 16:31AA 2343 1h 00m Chicago ORD 17:31 → MIA 21:53AA 3040 8h 42m 73% 45%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:50 → DFW 15:10AA 2687 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:06 → MIA 20:05AA 942 7h 15m 74% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON