Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Milwaukee on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Milwaukee is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	1h 39m Minneapolis	MSP 13:43 → MKE 15:02DL 2006	6h 42m	98%	89%
American Details →	SAN 06:19 → PHL 14:31AA 2093	1h 40m Philadelphia	PHL 16:11 → MKE 17:37AA 5439 · flown by PSA	9h 18m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → MKE 16:59DL 1206	8h 44m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725	1h 43m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MKE 21:02DL 2388	8h 26m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296	1h 27m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:45 → MKE 21:43DL 2619	6h 28m	92%	73%
United Details →	SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 19:45 → MKE 20:56UA 4711 · flown by SkyWest	8h 21m	94%	69%
American Details →	SAN 06:50 → CLT 14:49AA 1651	3h 38m Charlotte	CLT 18:27 → MKE 19:42AA 1072	10h 52m	98%	67%
American Details →	SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535	2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:30 → MKE 17:03AA 869	8h 43m	98%	64%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492	50m Detroit	DTW 20:00 → MKE 20:20DL 3724 · flown by SkyWest	6h 43m	71%	57%
United Details →	SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710	53m Chicago	ORD 17:45 → MKE 18:48UA 5555 · flown by SkyWest	6h 13m	63%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON