Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15–22% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 3005 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 22:26	MRY 23:58	15%	5%	3.6%	76%
AS 3346 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 12:53	MRY 14:28	22%	8%	2.7%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Monterey on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763	2h 02m San Francisco	SFO 17:21 → MRY 18:34UA 5627 · flown by SkyWest	4h 55m	91%	75%
United Details →	SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565	3h 09m Denver	DEN 19:15 → MRY 20:53UA 1822	8h 20m	97%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON