Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 91% chance of reaching Missoula on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Missoula on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Missoula is 1 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117	1h 35m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35DL 4112 · flown by SkyWest	5h 20m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	SAN 17:01 → SLC 19:59DL 1210	1h 37m Salt Lake City	SLC 21:36 → MSO 23:11DL 1824	5h 10m	93%	81%
United Details →	SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565	3h 25m Denver	DEN 19:31 → MSO 21:40UA 1092	8h 07m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	SAN 15:19 → MSP 20:58DL 2191	54m Minneapolis	MSP 21:52 → MSO 23:44DL 2610	7h 25m	83%	66%
Alaska Details →	SAN 15:17 → SEA 17:58AS 685	1h 36m Seattle	SEA 19:34 → MSO 21:56AS 604	5h 39m	80%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON