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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:20, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching New Orleans on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 32m Minneapolis MSP 15:36 → MSY 18:20DL 2695 10h 00m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAN 07:57 → IAH 13:26UA 2760 1h 59m Houston IAH 15:25 → MSY 16:33UA 2738 6h 36m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146 7h 42m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:54 → LAX 12:11DL 3716 · flown by SkyWest 3h 32m Los Angeles LAX 15:43 → MSY 21:28DL 2154 8h 34m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08UA 1071 1h 40m Dulles IAD 17:48 → MSY 19:28UA 251 9h 28m 95% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 17:56 → MSY 18:34DL 678 8h 34m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 2h 39m Denver DEN 18:45 → MSY 22:34UA 1541 8h 01m 95% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 2h 33m San Francisco SFO 10:37 → MSY 16:55UA 1012 8h 35m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467 1h 02m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:42 → MSY 20:21AA 2237 6h 01m 74% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON