Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 321 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 321 SAN 06:32 → OAK 08:14 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 94 SAN 12:01 → OAK 13:25 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 321 Southwest	SAN 06:32	OAK 08:14	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 2859 Southwest	SAN 08:30	OAK 10:04	8%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1599 Southwest	SAN 10:27	OAK 12:09	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1401 Southwest	SAN 13:47	OAK 15:24	17%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 143 Southwest	SAN 16:42	OAK 18:19	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
OO 3050 SkyWest	SAN 12:42	OAK 14:23	20%	8%	0.9%	no record
WN 4866 Southwest	SAN 19:02	OAK 20:36	20%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 94 Alaska	SAN 12:01	OAK 13:25	21%	4%	2.7%	no record
AS 2190 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:55	OAK 18:33	51%	14%	5.8%	49%
AS 2285 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:01	OAK 22:41	65%	21%	5.9%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON