tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via LAX, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 483 Alaska Flight history → SAN 18:55 OGG 21:55 22% 6% 1.0% 85%
AS 232 Alaska Flight history → SAN 10:59 OGG 13:42 25% 5% 1.0% 89%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 11:01 → SFO 12:47UA 2309 3h 53m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 11h 16m 100% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 2h 01m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 9h 14m 98% 78%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 55m Los Angeles LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425 7h 52m 91% 76%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 10h 53m 98% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 09:07 → HNL 12:18AS 815 3h 41m Honolulu HNL 15:59 → OGG 16:48AS 1436 10h 41m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 08:05 → LIH 11:28AS 220 3h 02m Lihue LIH 14:30 → OGG 15:19AS 1260 10h 14m 100% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SAN 14:28 → PDX 16:53AS 1402 52m Portland PDX 17:45 → OGG 20:40AS 353 9h 12m 67% 52%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 15:17 → SEA 17:57AS 685 1h 02m Seattle SEA 18:59 → OGG 22:07AS 202 9h 50m 64% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON