tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1949 at 14:27, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1949 Southwest SAN 14:27 OMA 19:46 15% 5% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 3h 50m Minneapolis MSP 21:30 → OMA 22:48DL 4014 · flown by SkyWest 9h 00m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 17:20 → OMA 18:42DL 2707 10h 27m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 33m Denver DEN 13:50 → OMA 16:24UA 2327 5h 39m 93% 80%
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:07 → DEN 19:39UA 682 1h 26m Denver DEN 21:05 → OMA 23:43UA 1787 5h 36m 91% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296 1h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 17:18 → OMA 20:40DL 3706 · flown by SkyWest 5h 25m 83% 75%
UnitedDetails → SAN 12:33 → DEN 16:06UA 1565 1h 59m Denver DEN 18:05 → OMA 20:42UA 1436 6h 09m 92% 74%
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 3h 07m San Francisco SFO 18:26 → OMA 23:45UA 2839 8h 06m 98% 74%
AmericanDetails → SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055 2h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:50 → OMA 17:51AA 2269 7h 51m 96% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON