Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2065 at 22:40 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; morning flights run 11–24%.

Safest bet that day AA 2065 SAN 22:40 → ORD 04:49 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest AS 1504 SAN 12:33 → ORD 18:31 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2065 American Flight history →	SAN 22:40	ORD 04:49	11%	4%	1.3%	85%
AA 518 American Flight history →	SAN 06:15	ORD 12:47	11%	4%	0.9%	89%
UA 1016 United	SAN 06:43	ORD 12:48	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 540 United	SAN 22:24	ORD 04:20	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 2486 United Flight history →	SAN 16:41	ORD 22:59	21%	9%	0.6%	82%
AA 2054 American	SAN 07:40	ORD 13:53	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
AS 1446 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 07:00	ORD 13:21	24%	5%	1.4%	75%
UA 1068 United	SAN 14:04	ORD 20:14	25%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 1710 United Flight history →	SAN 10:35	ORD 16:52	26%	10%	0.6%	82%
AA 2343 American Flight history →	SAN 10:11	ORD 16:31	26%	9%	0.9%	82%
AS 1504 Alaska	SAN 12:33	ORD 18:31	35%	6%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON