Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 2093 American Flight history →	SAN 06:19	PHL 14:31	13%	3%	0.8%	96%
AA 433 American Flight history →	SAN 09:21	PHL 17:45	21%	5%	0.8%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134	2h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 14:19 → PHL 17:55DL 2594	8h 35m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121	2h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 19:50 → PHL 23:21DL 2703	8h 33m	98%	87%
United Details →	SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302	3h 13m San Francisco	SFO 23:20 → PHL 07:50 +1UA 2854	10h 23m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	8h 39m	97%	85%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20DL 1117	2h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:25 → PHL 17:43DL 2022	8h 28m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → DTW 13:48DL 754	1h 12m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	7h 28m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → PHL 19:51DL 1329	10h 36m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	SAN 16:11 → SEA 19:05DL 2572	2h 15m Seattle	SEA 21:20 → PHL 05:29 +1DL 1114	10h 18m	92%	77%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830	47m San Francisco	SFO 08:51 → PHL 17:26UA 2824	8h 06m	73%	63%
American Details →	SAN 12:20 → DFW 17:40AA 1467	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242	7h 37m	70%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON