Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 168 at 06:42 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 168 SAN 06:42 → PHX 08:13 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OO 3309 SAN 13:53 → PHX 15:18 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 168 Southwest	SAN 06:42	PHX 08:13	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
AA 1212 American	SAN 06:28	PHX 08:00	11%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 4373 Southwest	SAN 08:12	PHX 09:38	11%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 1689 Southwest	SAN 10:22	PHX 11:48	13%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 3327 American	SAN 09:53	PHX 11:18	19%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 3669 Southwest	SAN 15:37	PHX 17:03	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 3668 Southwest	SAN 13:07	PHX 14:33	21%	5%	0.8%	no record
UA 2237 United	SAN 12:47	PHX 14:08	21%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 3401 Southwest	SAN 18:02	PHX 19:33	22%	6%	0.9%	no record
OO 3144 SkyWest	SAN 08:15	PHX 09:40	23%	7%	2.0%	no record
UA 327 United	SAN 14:50	PHX 16:16	23%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 3124 American	SAN 13:01	PHX 14:29	25%	7%	0.9%	no record
WN 1129 Southwest	SAN 16:42	PHX 18:08	26%	7%	0.8%	no record
AA 1785 American	SAN 13:05	PHX 14:19	27%	7%	0.9%	no record
F9 2084 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 18:50	PHX 20:25	28%	12%	1.2%	76%
AA 1951 American Flight history →	SAN 16:22	PHX 17:52	28%	9%	0.9%	74%
OO 3309 SkyWest	SAN 13:53	PHX 15:18	32%	9%	1.7%	no record
AS 2024 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 13:09	PHX 14:31	50%	12%	0.0%	50%
AS 2049 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 21:19	PHX 22:39	64%	32%	15.4%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON