Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2508 at 11:06 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 2508 SAN 11:06 → SEA 14:15 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AS 683 SAN 18:25 → SEA 21:13 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2508 Delta Flight history →	SAN 11:06	SEA 14:15	15%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 2530 Delta Flight history →	SAN 07:03	SEA 10:05	19%	3%	0.8%	91%
DL 2533 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:36	SEA 16:32	20%	5%	0.8%	86%
AS 608 Alaska	SAN 06:33	SEA 09:20	20%	2%	1.5%	no record
DL 2572 Delta Flight history →	SAN 16:11	SEA 19:05	23%	6%	0.8%	87%worse than usual
WN 2978 Southwest	SAN 07:17	SEA 10:26	24%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 1373 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 19:25	SEA 22:13	27%	7%	1.8%	93%worse than usual
AS 1368 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 12:08	SEA 14:54	29%	4%	1.3%	85%worse than usual
AS 1503 Alaska	SAN 11:28	SEA 14:16	31%	4%	1.2%	no record
AS 792 Alaska	SAN 09:18	SEA 12:04	34%	4%	1.4%	no record
AS 685 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 15:17	SEA 17:58	34%	6%	1.4%	82%worse than usual
WN 155 Southwest	SAN 16:57	SEA 20:06	35%	11%	0.7%	no record
AS 692 Alaska	SAN 17:18	SEA 20:05	37%	7%	1.5%	no record
AS 683 Alaska Flight history →	SAN 18:25	SEA 21:13	42%	9%	1.6%	75%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON