Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 20 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2830 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 2830 SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 1484 SAN 07:48 → SFO 09:20 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2830 United Flight history →	SAN 06:20	SFO 08:04	9%	2%	0.6%	89%
DL 8842 Delta	SAN 07:11	SFO 08:46	16%	7%	1.7%	no record
UA 1835 United	SAN 12:40	SFO 14:32	20%	9%	0.6%	no record
WN 2794 Southwest	SAN 10:17	SFO 12:00	21%	9%	1.0%	no record
UA 2309 United Flight history →	SAN 11:01	SFO 12:47	23%	9%	0.6%	68%
AS 3482 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 16:23	SFO 18:05	23%	10%	1.2%	76%
WN 379 Southwest	SAN 13:02	SFO 14:45	24%	10%	1.1%	no record
UA 1791 United	SAN 10:00	SFO 11:36	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1030 United	SAN 07:28	SFO 09:19	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 1302 United Flight history →	SAN 18:27	SFO 20:07	25%	13%	0.6%	62%
UA 2117 United Flight history →	SAN 16:09	SFO 17:49	25%	12%	0.6%	76%
UA 2278 United Flight history →	SAN 19:32	SFO 21:07	28%	14%	0.6%	37%
F9 3383 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 15:55	SFO 17:42	29%	15%	5.1%	27%
AS 1486 Alaska	SAN 11:19	SFO 12:52	29%	9%	1.5%	no record
AS 1331 Alaska	SAN 17:47	SFO 19:19	29%	13%	1.8%	no record
AS 493 Alaska	SAN 14:31	SFO 16:02	30%	11%	1.5%	no record
UA 1763 United Flight history →	SAN 13:39	SFO 15:19	30%	12%	0.6%	74%
WN 1963 Southwest	SAN 18:23	SFO 19:58	30%	12%	1.2%	no record
AS 1484 Alaska	SAN 07:48	SFO 09:20	38%	10%	1.4%	no record
AS 2314 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:14	SFO 17:49	72%	10%	3.8%	28%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON