Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4956 at 00:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 4956 SAN 00:04 → SJC 01:27 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 432 SAN 13:39 → SJC 15:05 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4956 Southwest	SAN 00:04	SJC 01:27	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4914 Southwest	SAN 07:12	SJC 08:46	6%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 4260 Southwest	SAN 08:17	SJC 09:51	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 636 Southwest	SAN 10:47	SJC 12:21	12%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 1756 Southwest	SAN 15:17	SJC 16:51	16%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 3147 SkyWest	SAN 16:27	SJC 18:05	16%	6%	0.8%	no record
AS 1308 Alaska	SAN 21:16	SJC 22:46	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
WN 4919 Southwest	SAN 17:12	SJC 18:46	17%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3461 Southwest	SAN 13:47	SJC 15:21	18%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 222 Alaska	SAN 12:53	SJC 14:21	20%	4%	0.8%	no record
WN 4870 Southwest	SAN 18:45	SJC 20:16	22%	6%	0.7%	no record
AS 432 Alaska	SAN 13:39	SJC 15:05	23%	4%	0.8%	no record
AS 2091 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 09:55	SJC 11:24	49%	12%	1.9%	51%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON