Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1117 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1117 SAN 06:15 → SLC 09:20 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 1085 SAN 16:37 → SLC 19:34 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1117 Delta Flight history →	SAN 06:15	SLC 09:20	7%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 3687 Southwest	SAN 08:37	SLC 11:34	9%	2%	0.5%	no record
DL 1177 Delta Flight history →	SAN 09:46	SLC 12:50	14%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 1210 Delta Flight history →	SAN 17:01	SLC 19:59	16%	5%	0.6%	82%
DL 1296 Delta Flight history →	SAN 13:15	SLC 16:18	17%	5%	0.6%	87%
OO 3118 SkyWest	SAN 11:37	SLC 14:59	20%	8%	0.6%	no record
AS 3488 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:54	SLC 19:02	23%	8%	0.6%	81%
WN 1085 Southwest	SAN 16:37	SLC 19:34	26%	6%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON