Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3689 at 06:32 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 3689 SAN 06:32 → SMF 08:35 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1655 SAN 15:34 → SMF 17:13 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 3689 Southwest	SAN 06:32	SMF 08:35	4%	1%	0.8%	no record
WN 1891 Southwest	SAN 07:56	SMF 09:38	7%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4246 Southwest	SAN 10:22	SMF 12:15	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3691 Southwest	SAN 15:12	SMF 17:05	17%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2085 Southwest	SAN 13:12	SMF 15:05	18%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 4271 Southwest	SAN 16:02	SMF 17:55	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 428 Alaska	SAN 20:39	SMF 22:17	19%	6%	1.4%	no record
AS 3410 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 17:53	SMF 19:40	22%	7%	1.0%	80%
OO 3252 SkyWest	SAN 09:13	SMF 11:00	23%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 4272 Southwest	SAN 19:53	SMF 21:18	26%	7%	0.8%	no record
AS 1655 Alaska	SAN 15:34	SMF 17:13	26%	6%	1.3%	no record
AS 2334 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:56	SMF 18:38	43%	12%	0.0%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON