tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 4576 at 10:02, with a 16% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4576 Southwest SAN 10:02 STL 15:40 16% 3% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:20 → MSP 12:04DL 2134 3h 10m Minneapolis MSP 15:14 → STL 16:50DL 1224 8h 30m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:48 → MSP 17:40DL 2121 2h 50m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → STL 22:03DL 1609 8h 15m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 03m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543 8h 24m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → SAN 06:20 → DFW 11:35AA 2535 3h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:54 → STL 16:49AA 3944 · flown by Envoy 8h 29m 98% 77%
AmericanDetails → SAN 09:21 → PHL 17:45AA 433 2h 14m Philadelphia PHL 19:59 → STL 21:52AA 798 10h 31m 91% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 10:36 → ATL 18:11DL 725 1h 43m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → STL 20:37DL 2833 8h 01m 96% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 08m Denver DEN 13:25 → STL 16:33UA 1639 5h 48m 91% 74%
UnitedDetails → SAN 10:35 → ORD 16:52UA 1710 3h 16m Chicago ORD 20:08 → STL 21:27UA 1625 8h 52m 95% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SAN 11:37 → DTW 19:10DL 492 50m Detroit DTW 20:00 → STL 20:37DL 1541 7h 00m 71% 62%
DeltaDetails → SAN 13:15 → SLC 16:18DL 1296 52m Salt Lake City SLC 17:10 → STL 21:00DL 2666 5h 45m 72% 59%
AmericanDetails → SAN 11:22 → DFW 16:34AA 2034 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:20 → STL 19:15AA 2487 5h 53m 65% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON