tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: American via DFW, leaving 08:00, is the safest bet: 49% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 668 Southwest SAN 14:52 TPA 22:35 23% 8% 1.4% no record
AS 518 Alaska SAN 10:38 TPA 18:19 26% 5% 1.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 3 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117 3h 10m San Francisco SFO 20:59 → TPA 05:03 +1UA 1702 9h 54m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → ATL 13:49DL 729 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 16:18 → TPA 17:53DL 1425 8h 38m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:00 → IAD 16:08UA 1071 1h 52m Dulles IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140 9h 39m 96% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 07:29 → JFK 16:19DL 367 3h 46m New York JFK 20:05 → TPA 23:25DL 1636 12h 56m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → SAN 06:15 → LAX 07:35DL 3743 · flown by SkyWest 2h 50m Los Angeles LAX 10:25 → TPA 18:19DL 749 9h 04m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAN 08:45 → DEN 12:17UA 2476 1h 18m Denver DEN 13:35 → TPA 19:13UA 2375 7h 28m 92% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 3h 15m San Francisco SFO 11:19 → TPA 19:30UA 1484 10h 10m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → SAN 08:00 → ATL 15:33DL 1179 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 18:22 → TPA 19:54DL 1457 8h 54m 96% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 18:27 → SFO 20:07UA 1302 52m San Francisco SFO 20:59 → TPA 05:03 +1UA 1702 7h 36m 68% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON