tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 1948 at 18:12, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 1948 Southwest SAN 18:12 TUS 19:41 21% 7% 0.7% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAN 09:46 → SLC 12:50DL 1177 2h 10m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 20m 95% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAN 06:20 → SFO 08:04UA 2830 2h 16m San Francisco SFO 10:20 → TUS 12:40UA 5433 · flown by SkyWest 6h 20m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → SAN 08:00 → DFW 13:10AA 1055 1h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:46 → TUS 15:01AA 584 7h 01m 91% 51%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAN 16:22 → PHX 17:52AA 1951 46m Phoenix PHX 18:38 → TUS 19:36AA 6457 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m 63% 47%
AmericanDetails → SAN 15:12 → DFW 20:30AA 3060 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:26 → TUS 21:55AA 1580 6h 43m 64% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON