Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 5–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1073 SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2009 SAT 17:00 → ATL 20:40 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1073 Delta Flight history →	SAT 05:20	ATL 08:46	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
DL 1066 Delta Flight history →	SAT 06:40	ATL 10:07	6%	2%	0.7%	94%
DL 998 Delta Flight history →	SAT 07:40	ATL 11:06	6%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 1676 Delta Flight history →	SAT 10:38	ATL 14:05	11%	3%	0.7%	88%
DL 1408 Delta Flight history →	SAT 14:35	ATL 18:11	13%	5%	1.8%	80%
DL 2009 Delta Flight history →	SAT 17:00	ATL 20:40	14%	6%	1.7%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON