tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Boston on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 74% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 816 Delta Flight history → SAT 13:39 BOS 18:59 34% 10% 0.6% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Boston is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 53m Houston IAH 07:30 → BOS 12:28UA 1977 5h 58m 95% 86%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → BOS 12:41DL 855 6h 21m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 12:18 → BOS 14:57DL 1293 7h 17m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 1h 06m Minneapolis MSP 10:05 → BOS 13:51DL 2655 6h 46m 95% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 54m Minneapolis MSP 20:10 → BOS 23:56DL 2614 8h 30m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 15:04 → DTW 19:09DL 2458 2h 50m Detroit DTW 21:59 → BOS 23:59DL 1187 7h 55m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657 9h 06m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:11 → DTW 09:16DL 2497 49m Detroit DTW 10:05 → BOS 11:59DL 2648 5h 48m 91% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SAT 12:39 → DFW 14:01AA 413 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:50 → BOS 19:59AA 2306 6h 20m 74% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON