Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, AA 1718 at 06:35, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 1718 American Flight history →	SAT 06:35	DCA 10:56	6%	2%	0.8%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	1h 26m Minneapolis	MSP 10:25 → DCA 13:48DL 2983	6h 43m	97%	89%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 20:30 → DCA 23:58DL 2961	8h 32m	99%	89%
United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	1h 08m Houston	IAH 07:45 → DCA 11:40UA 512	5h 10m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DCA 12:52DL 1798	6h 32m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	2h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 10:29 → DCA 16:35DL 820	9h 05m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SAT 15:04 → DTW 19:09DL 2458	2h 14m Detroit	DTW 21:23 → DCA 23:03DL 2073	6h 59m	100%	83%
American Details →	SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342	2h 32m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:50 → DCA 12:52AA 1177	6h 51m	98%	83%
United Details →	SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410	3h 05m Houston	IAH 11:55 → DCA 16:03UA 654	7h 20m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAT 16:47 → DFW 17:59AA 1961	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:52 → DCA 22:59AA 2752	5h 12m	66%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON