Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3709 at 06:31 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–15%.

Safest bet that day WN 3709 SAT 06:31 → DEN 07:58 · 2% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2479 SAT 16:35 → DEN 18:08 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3709 Southwest	SAT 06:31	DEN 07:58	2%	1%	0.5%	no record
OO 5397 SkyWest	SAT 05:32	DEN 07:11	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 3282 Southwest	SAT 13:46	DEN 15:08	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 2853 United Flight history →	SAT 08:52	DEN 10:10	10%	3%	0.6%	86%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	SAT 13:39	DEN 14:55	11%	4%	0.5%	84%
F9 2355 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 20:14	DEN 21:53	12%	5%	0.7%	87%
WN 3712 Southwest	SAT 16:56	DEN 18:23	13%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2479 United Flight history →	SAT 16:35	DEN 18:08	15%	6%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON