Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2616 at 04:58 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–26%.

Safest bet that day AA 2616 SAT 04:58 → DFW 06:21 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 1961 SAT 16:47 → DFW 17:59 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2616 American Flight history →	SAT 04:58	DFW 06:21	6%	4%	1.2%	93%
AA 2342 American Flight history →	SAT 05:01	DFW 06:18	6%	3%	1.2%	91%
AA 3098 American Flight history →	SAT 07:00	DFW 08:20	9%	5%	1.2%	83%
AA 1631 American Flight history →	SAT 09:34	DFW 10:58	10%	6%	1.1%	78%
AA 2377 American Flight history →	SAT 08:00	DFW 09:24	11%	5%	1.2%	86%
AA 2759 American Flight history →	SAT 10:49	DFW 12:12	12%	6%	1.3%	78%
AA 2768 American	SAT 14:01	DFW 15:24	18%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 413 American Flight history →	SAT 12:39	DFW 14:01	18%	11%	1.1%	70%
AA 620 American	SAT 17:38	DFW 19:06	21%	12%	2.8%	no record
MQ 3742 Envoy	SAT 19:10	DFW 20:32	24%	17%	15.6%	no record
AA 1961 American Flight history →	SAT 16:47	DFW 17:59	26%	13%	2.7%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON