Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 4–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2497 Delta Flight history →	SAT 05:11	DTW 09:16	4%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 2458 Delta Flight history →	SAT 15:04	DTW 19:09	9%	4%	0.5%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	4h 00m Minneapolis	MSP 12:59 → DTW 15:41DL 1519	8h 36m	99%	90%
United Details →	SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469	3h 08m Houston	IAH 09:45 → DTW 13:42UA 4064 · flown by Mesa	7h 12m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:45 → DTW 15:12DL 2236	7h 42m	97%	87%
American Details →	SAT 06:24 → ORD 09:29AA 632	3h 43m Chicago	ORD 13:12 → DTW 15:38AA 3980 · flown by Envoy	8h 14m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528	2h 30m Minneapolis	MSP 19:46 → DTW 22:32DL 1484	7h 06m	98%	85%
United Details →	SAT 06:27 → EWR 11:22UA 2233	2h 00m Newark	EWR 13:22 → DTW 15:25UA 3437 · flown by Republic	7h 58m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → DTW 12:56DL 1240	6h 36m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SAT 07:40 → ATL 11:06DL 998	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → DTW 16:06DL 1031	7h 26m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SAT 16:47 → DFW 17:59AA 1961	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:47 → DTW 22:36AA 3108	4h 49m	56%	31%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON