tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, WN 3068 at 11:46, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3068 Southwest SAT 11:46 ELP 12:36 7% 3% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h behind San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 2h 08m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → ELP 13:20DL 1002 7h 40m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:52 → DEN 10:10UA 2853 1h 26m Denver DEN 11:36 → ELP 13:31UA 2128 5h 39m 95% 79%
UnitedDetails → SAT 09:52 → IAH 11:15UA 753 3h 05m Houston IAH 14:20 → ELP 15:25UA 4275 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 33m 100% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 14:15 → IAH 15:27UA 6281 · flown by Mesa 1h 31m Houston IAH 16:58 → ELP 18:02UA 3983 · flown by Mesa 4h 47m 90% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 20m Houston IAH 12:10 → ELP 13:15UA 4361 · flown by CommuteAir 6h 32m 98% 76%
AmericanDetails → SAT 05:01 → DFW 06:18AA 2342 2h 07m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:25 → ELP 09:22AA 1365 5h 21m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25UA 404 2h 32m Houston IAH 19:57 → ELP 21:01UA 4009 · flown by Mesa 5h 43m 94% 75%
AmericanDetails → SAT 15:35 → PHX 16:14AA 2375 2h 37m Phoenix PHX 18:51 → ELP 21:17AA 6369 · flown by SkyWest 6h 42m 94% 69%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON