tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:11, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2233 United Flight history → SAT 06:27 EWR 11:22 6% 3% 0.8% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 59m Minneapolis MSP 20:15 → EWR 23:56DL 2846 8h 30m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:11 → DTW 09:16DL 2497 59m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 45m 95% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 1h 19m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 01m 97% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 15:04 → DTW 19:09DL 2458 2h 31m Detroit DTW 21:40 → EWR 23:25DL 2609 7h 21m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:40 → ATL 10:07DL 1066 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 12:02 → EWR 14:16DL 2312 6h 36m 98% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 3h 11m Houston IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 7h 57m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 1h 13m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 6h 37m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:18 → IAH 17:25UA 404 2h 30m Houston IAH 19:55 → EWR 00:37 +1UA 1444 7h 19m 94% 74%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON