tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Bush, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Dulles on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 471 United Flight history → SAT 07:00 IAD 11:27 4% 2% 0.6% 95%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 12:27 → IAD 14:26DL 2135 8h 06m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 19:50 → IAD 23:20DL 4129 · flown by SkyWest 7h 54m 98% 88%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 48m Houston IAH 07:25 → IAD 11:32UA 1549 5h 02m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717 58m Minneapolis MSP 09:57 → IAD 13:33DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 6h 28m 94% 85%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:11 → DTW 09:16DL 2497 1h 06m Detroit DTW 10:22 → IAD 11:47DL 3082 5h 36m 96% 84%
DeltaDetails → SAT 15:04 → DTW 19:09DL 2458 2h 29m Detroit DTW 21:38 → IAD 23:13DL 3988 · flown by SkyWest 7h 09m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:52 → DEN 10:10UA 2853 3h 43m Denver DEN 13:53 → IAD 19:22UA 347 9h 30m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → SAT 07:43 → IAH 08:50UA 410 3h 13m Houston IAH 12:03 → IAD 16:14UA 3904 7h 31m 98% 82%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON