Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Detroit, leaving 05:11, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching New York on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 1166 Delta Flight history →	SAT 12:37	JFK 17:55	21%	7%	0.8%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of San Antonio). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SAT 06:05 → MSP 08:59DL 2717	3h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	9h 55m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:11 → DTW 09:16DL 2497	58m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	5h 47m	95%	81%
Delta Details →	SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528	3h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 20:21 → JFK 23:52DL 2692	8h 26m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073	2h 19m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	7h 00m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592	1h 38m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	9h 17m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	SAT 12:30 → SLC 14:30DL 930	2h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47DL 697	10h 17m	99%	78%
American Details →	SAT 06:35 → DCA 10:56AA 1718	2h 03m Washington	DCA 12:59 → JFK 14:15AA 4522 · flown by Republic	6h 40m	98%	77%
Delta Details →	SAT 10:38 → ATL 14:05DL 1676	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 17:36 → JFK 20:03DL 2398	8h 25m	99%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON