Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1217 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 14–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 1217 SAT 05:36 → LAS 06:39 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 3419 SAT 14:56 → LAS 16:03 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1217 Southwest	SAT 05:36	LAS 06:39	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 3865 Southwest	SAT 12:51	LAS 13:54	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4345 Southwest	SAT 17:56	LAS 18:59	22%	11%	1.1%	no record
F9 3417 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 13:39	LAS 14:35	24%	8%	1.0%	78%
F9 3419 Frontier Flight history →	SAT 14:56	LAS 16:03	26%	9%	1.3%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON