tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Kansas City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SAT 06:30 → SLC 08:21DL 2592 2h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 7h 27m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → SAT 05:30 → IAH 06:37UA 469 1h 21m Houston IAH 07:58 → MCI 09:55UA 2009 4h 25m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → SAT 08:52 → DEN 10:10UA 2853 3h 30m Denver DEN 13:40 → MCI 16:22UA 586 7h 30m 98% 83%
DeltaDetails → SAT 14:26 → MSP 17:16DL 2528 3h 14m Minneapolis MSP 20:30 → MCI 21:59DL 1657 7h 33m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SAT 05:20 → ATL 08:46DL 1073 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:12DL 2747 6h 52m 97% 80%
AmericanDetails → SAT 04:58 → DFW 06:21AA 2616 57m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:18 → MCI 09:05AA 2430 4h 07m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → SAT 16:35 → DEN 18:08UA 2479 2h 32m Denver DEN 20:40 → MCI 23:25UA 1596 6h 50m 97% 76%
UnitedDetails → SAT 06:40 → ORD 09:38UA 1332 3h 02m Chicago ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561 7h 40m 99% 76%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON